A Walk in the Park

Saguaro National Park (East) on the loop trail.


Looking into the Rincon Mountains east of Tucson.


Saguaro cactus, emblem of the American Southwest.


Desert Landscape.

Wild flowers are just starting to bloom. This is supposed to be one of the best years for the flowers in the last decade. I think I'll focus on flower and natur photography this year.

Americans AREN'T smarter than that ...

Reposted from Crooks and Liars

Bill Maher breaks out his new rules on Friday’s Real Time and his final rule deals with politicians who say that Americans are smart enough to see through spin and lies. Maher speaks the truth - it’s amazing that during the information age, it’s still so difficult to get factual information to the public. The facts are that Barack Obama isn’t a Muslim, Saddam Hussein wasn’t involved in the 9/11 attacks and global warming is real — yet somehow, to some, they still remain theories.

Maher:”New rule, politicians must stop saying “the American people are smarter than that.” No they aren’t! If the Bush era has taught us anything, it’s that voters want a president carved in their own image. Someone who doesn’t like to read or believe anything he’s told and is easily distracted by bright, shiny objects.”

Find it here ...

Obama AND Clinton Supporters Must Drop Out of the Race

By cscs

I think one thing is clear this far into the Democratic primary race: Both Obama's and Clinton's supporters must now drop out of the race.

Hillary Clinton's supporters have gotten incredibly annoying, with their chants of "Yes She Can," and charges of cultism and their desperate yelps of schadenfreude every time Clinton looks like she might actually be "recapturing the lead" that she never had.

And Obama's supporters, yes, you too are incredibly annoying, with your accusations of Clintonian Republicanism and your whiny little cries about how you're going to take your ball and run home if your candidate doesn't win the primary.

Supporters of both candidates, please listen closely. For the good of the Party -- no, for the good of the Nation! -- the time has come for you to leave this race.

The rest after the click ...

McCain Campaign: More Family Values at work

Pro-Life Groups Hit by GOP Lawmaker's Alleged Fraud

Renzi Funneled Hundreds of Thousands from Pregnancy Crisis Centers to Fund First Run for Congress

By JUSTIN ROOD

March 8, 2007—

Rep. Rick Renzi, R-Ariz., allegedly defrauded dozens of pro-life organizations for hundreds of thousands of dollars to fund his first congressional bid, according to an analysis of the recent indictment against him, a state insurance claim and an interview with an insurance lawyer involved in the case.

When federal prosecutors indicted Renzi, 49, on 35 felony counts two weeks ago, many reports focused on alleged crimes stemming from a complicated series of land swaps the congressman facilitated.

But the indictment also accuses Renzi, who ran an insurance firm before coming to Capitol Hill, of misappropriating hundreds of thousands of dollars in insurance premiums and using the money to fund his congressional campaign.

Organizations such as Arizona Right-to-Life, the Hope Crisis Pregnancy Center and the Wickenburg Pregnancy Resource Center paid insurance premiums to Renzi's insurance firm, Renzi & Company, but received notices their insurance coverage was going to be cancelled for nonpayment, according to a 2003 complaint filed with the State of Arizona. The complaint was first reported by the Phoenix New Times.

According to the indictment, Renzi funneled those payments -- totaling more than $400,000 -- through various accounts and finally to his campaign.

The rest of the ABS News piece after the click.

My comment:

I wonder if St. John McSame knows, yet? After all, Renzi is/was is a member of Sen. John McSame's (R-AZ) National Leadership Team and a co-chair of his Arizona Leadership Team. I'm willing to bet the Right-To-Lifers, a foundation for the social conservative movement, are taking note of who fleeced them and his associations. Of course, McSame's comment: "It doesn't matter."

So let me see if I understand this correctly. One of Obama's ranking advisers is forced to resign from the Obama campaign for calling Clinton a "monster" while one of McSame's advisers steals hundreds of thousands of dollars from Republican supporters and "it doesn't matter"? WTF? Kinda makes you wonder what DOES matter. It sure gives some insight into the meaning of "leadership" on the right.

Karl Rove: 2000 v. 2008

2000: On the Bush Campaign Trail

Rove invented a uniquely injurious fiction for his operatives to circulate via a phony poll. Voters were asked, "Would you be more or less likely to vote for John McCain ... if you knew he had fathered an illegitimate black child?" This was no random slur. McCain was at the time campaigning with his dark-skinned daughter, Bridget, adopted from Bangladesh.

It worked. Owing largely to the Rove-orchestrated whispering campaign, Bush prevailed in South Carolina and secured the Republican nomination. The rest is history - specifically the tragic and blighted history of our young century. It worked in another way as well. Too shaken to defend himself, McCain emerged from the bruising episode less maverick reformer and more Manchurian candidate.

Sourced: Here and Here. (The last bit is particularly worth reading lest one forget how Rove works.)

2008: On The O'Reilly Factor

"I don’t think people know a lot about him. They don’t know about his views and values that informed him as a young man. They don’t know about what drew him to service in the United States Navy. They don’t know about all of the compelling story about the POW experience that he had. They don’t know what motivated him, but what people and places in Sedona touch his life. Let me give you just one example: I think most of your viewers be shocked to hear the story about Cindy McCain in Bangladesh, visiting an orphanage, and she has a small dying child thrust into her hands and the orphanage…the people in the orphanage say we can’t, we can’t care for her, she’s dying, we don’t know what to do. And Cindy McCain’s impulse was to hold that…hug that child to her chest, get on an airplane and bring her home. When she got off the plane, there was John McCain, and he said, “What do you got?” and she said “I’ve got a child who’s dying, we need to get her help…we need to get her care.” And John said, “Well, who is she going to be staying with?” and Cindy McCain said, “I was hoping that she could stay with us.” And today, that young child–who was near death–is their teenage daughter. I don’t think most people understand the compassion and love that would come from a moment like that. There’s a lot more of John McCain’s story that he needs to tell."

My comment:

Obviously Republican Family Values at work ... or as Richard Nixon would have it, "situational ethics".

McCain: Caught in an Untruth

McCain Overstates His Criticisms Of Rumsfeld

By Peter Baker
Washington Post Staff Writer

As he gets closer to the Republican nomination, Sen. John McCain has been trying to balance his unqualified support for the Iraq war by reminding audiences that he was also a tough critic of how it was managed until President Bush finally changed strategies a year ago. In recent weeks, McCain has gone so far as to tell audiences that he was "the only one" who called for Donald H. Rumsfeld's resignation as defense secretary.

The trick is that he never did, at least not publicly. The senator from Arizona was a tough critic of Rumsfeld and more than once said that he had no confidence in the Pentagon chief in the two years before Bush finally dumped Rumsfeld in November 2006. But even as he was criticizing Rumsfeld, McCain typically stopped short of calling for the Pentagon chief to step down.

While campaigning in Fort Myers, Fla., on Jan. 26, he told a crowd: "In the conflict that we're in, I'm the only one that said we have to abandon the Rumsfeld strategy -- and Rumsfeld -- and adopt a new strategy." Four days later during a debate at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, Calif., aired on CNN, McCain said, "I'm the only one that said that Rumsfeld had to go."

A McCain spokesman acknowledged this week that that was not correct.

The rest of the Washington Post Saturday, February 16, 2008; Page A10 after the click...

My comment:

It reminds me of a sticker I used to have on the back window of my Miata (before I gave it to my son-in-law): "The older I get the better I was."

Hillary spin that could and should backfire

Hillary "Triangulates" Against Obama, Loses My Vote in the General
by Joe Palermo

Hillary Clinton refuses to release her tax returns (which the Obamas have done long ago) and when the Obama campaign brought this fact up the Clinton campaign compared Obama's legitimate request that she release her returns to Kenneth Starr's inquest into the Clintons of the 1990s. The Clinton campaign brought up Kenneth Starr? That's a big mistake. Why would you want to remind voters about the entire sordid business of Bill Clinton's adultery? Hillary's now infamous fear-mongering "ringing phone" ad implies that she is vigilant and ready to start the presidency "on day one." But we all know, thanks to Kenneth Starr, the only one on the phone at 3:00 in the morning when Hillary lived in the White House was her husband having phone sex with Monica Lewinsky.

Hillary Clinton has been repeating the baseless assertion that she and her good buddy John McCain (a Republican war hawk tied closely to George W. Bush) are the "experienced" adults in the presidential race. She strongly implies that the 46-year-old Barack Obama, who has an impressive 20-year record of public service and more direct legislative experience than Hillary, is some kind of "boy" (or maybe a "man child") who is not yet ready to be president. The only thing Obama has, Clinton claims, is "a speech." Really Hillary? "A speech?" That's all Obama, the most inspiring Democratic politician in decades, has to offer is "a speech?" That's a pretty racist notion to be tossing in the direction of the first African-American candidate for president in U.S. history, and coming from a fellow Democrat, absolutely monstrous. Hillary and her Karl Roves -- Mark Penn and Howard Wolfson -- have just written the text for about a thousand different Republican attack ads we'll see this fall in the general election. Well done! Hillary's the best thing to happen to the Democratic Party since Joe Lieberman.

The rest after the click ...

Red States / Blue States

The Red State / Blue State map looked like this when the votes were tallied after the 2004 election:


Map credit: Michael Gastner, Cosma Shalizi, and Mark Newman, University of Michigan

The state by state map is a little deceptive, particularly in light of the fact that the overall margin that the Republican Party won by in 2004 was on the order of 1.5% ... that is to say, closer than a 49:51 win.


Map credit: Michael Gastner, Cosma Shalizi, and Mark Newman, University of Michigan

Breaking the overall voting down by county gives a better understanding of what that actually meant. Democrats tended to win in more urban areas (where people actually live) while the Republicans took those areas where the deer and the antelope play (imagine the sound of crickets chirping).

Looking into the future, pollsters are predicting the map will look like this going into the 2008 election if Clinton is the Democratic Party nominee: (And we know how "right on" the pollsters been.)



... and like this if Obama is the Democratic nominee:



I'm looking forward to a county by county breakdown once Obama is President. I suspect it will be a very different shade of purple.

While you were out to lunch ...

Source: Wikipedia (The Bush effect added.)

When Bush campaigned for the office of President in 2000, oil sold for $31 a barrel. Jon Stewart and Aasif Mandvi analyze the dynamics of the $104.00 barrel of oil:

AASIF MANDVI: Well, Jon, it’s true, oil prices have reached an all time high. But before consumers do something drastic, like purchase a hybrid—or as I call them, a mutant—consider the fixed costs that go into producing your typical $104 barrel of oil. Right up front, $5 goes to new development of new oil resources. $10 goes to new technology research. $15 a barrel goes to making those commercials where oil companies try to convince you they’re not raping the environment and $25 goes toward blackening the oil.

Jon STEWART: If I may, just very quickly, right there stop you, I was under the impression that oil comes out black.

MANDVI: That’s what Hollywood would have you believe, Jon. No, oil actually comes out of the ground looking like this. A pretty rainbow! And it burns clean. Cruding it up ain’t cheap.

STEWART: Aasif, so that adds, I guess, $55 a barrel to the oil, what about the rest of the cost?

MANDVI: Well, it fluctuates, depending on how chaotic the political situation is. That’s why the Middle East loves George Bush. Without him, oil prices plummet; Middle Eastern revenue streams dry up and the terrorist are having to work second jobs at Bennigans. Or, the Middle Eastern equivalent: Applebee’s.

Watch the full piece here.

Does the car you drive define who you are?

or catch the ad here ...

What does your car say about you?

Unrestricted Free-Market Capitalism

from Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

... let's not be too gloomy here.

Other than overleverage, bad debts, sinking home prices, no jobs, shrinking wages, cash strapped US consumers, rising oil prices, a sinking US dollar, $500 trillion in derivatives not marked to market, rampant overcapacity, underfunded pension plans, looming boomer retirements, no funding for Medicaid, no funding for Medicare, and no Social Security trust fund, everything is just fine.

And even though the Fed, central bankers in general, and governments combined to create this problem, the irony is nearly everyone is begging for them to fix the problem by encouraging still more speculation in housing, commercial real estate, and the markets.

Sorry folks, it's the end of the line and payback time for the world's most reckless financial experiment in history. The deflation genie can't be put back in the bottle until leverage everywhere is unwound.

The rest after the click ...

My comment:

Think of it as the invisible hand of the market giving you the finger.

A wise and savvy real estate agent attended a gathering at our house a couple of months ago. Over a beer he waxed on about how this sub-prime crisis was, in his opinion, a tempest in a teapot and that it would go away as soon as everyone realized that it was less significant than they thought at first blush. After all, how can real estate, representing only 2% of the overall economy have that big an effect.

The answer is "It's the leverage, stupid!"

According to Wikipedia leverage is: In finance, leverage (or gearing) is using given resources in such a way that the potential positive or negative outcome is magnified. It generally refers to using borrowed funds, or debt, so as to attempt to increase the returns to equity.

When you put down 15% on a house and mortgage the balance, you're leveraging 85% of the value of the house with 15% of the value in cash. That what the rules used to be. However, for the last several years, using creative first and second mortgage loans, lenders have created a situation that allowed home buyers to effectively leverage 100% of the housing purchase. A second mortgage at a relatively high rate provides the cash for a down payment and the first mortgage is extended as if the second mortgage didn't exist. Sub-prime and Alt-A mortgages didn't require verification of assets or income and borrowers were encouraged by lenders to fill in the blanks with numbers that would balance the books ... regardless of the truth of the numbers.

Leverage is a way of multiplying your buying power by assuming debt. It's a great idea when everything is going well. The problem is that when things go south, leverage also multiplies the down side. So, even though real estate may make up only 2% of the economy overall ... the debt associated with that 2% magnifies its impact.

Another way of looking it at might be to think of a bowling ball as representing the mass of that 2% of the economy. It's one thing if I toss it to you gently from across the ally. It's quite another thing if I leverage the same bowling ball by using a cannon pointed in your direction. Same bowling ball ... different leverage.

So ... who do you want to answer the phone at 3AM?

Image credit: DanzFamily.com

There are some real choices ... so take your pick.

Free Speech / Freedom From Speech

From a Note to my Daughter

The TV writers strike has made the Democratic primary campaign and the overall election coverage the best running series on the tube -- and like all good teevee series, once you get sucked into the characters, it's all over for the duration. The plot thickens as time goes on. Smiley faces cover evil grins and everything is a set up. AND ... just like "Law and Order", if you get the right channel, you can watch it 24 hours a day but unlike "Law and Order" (Candy and I have seen every episode ever made at least three times, more often many more) you don't know where or what the plot twists are. Life will be so empty when the campaign is over ... but I don't think I'm up for the reruns.

Interesting

For some reason, this blog seems to be VERY popular in Tempe, Arizona: 70.162.32.164